Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 32.349377 38.379312 44.983862 52.723777 61.513208 71.151564 82.486473
2025-02-02 24.910980 33.303692 43.371475 56.197377 71.949652 90.506222 113.847299
2025-02-09 20.025332 29.404472 41.470550 57.825875 79.077414 105.396388 140.050609
2025-02-16 16.518357 26.327040 39.726739 58.856069 84.880451 118.421618 164.193625
2025-02-23 13.589556 23.395878 37.558282 58.746378 88.767440 128.823534 185.183906
2025-03-02 11.044984 20.514790 34.948040 57.521569 90.736713 136.480024 202.641380
2025-03-09 9.268898 18.485227 33.248043 57.282375 93.853028 145.631696 222.327410
2025-03-16 7.242150 15.644189 29.862694 54.038550 92.160493 147.725869 232.087321
2025-03-23 6.451428 14.832124 29.626034 55.617770 97.702747 160.363747 257.216364
2025-03-30 5.392748 13.311865 27.970877 54.675383 99.180700 166.982806 273.805123
2025-04-06 5.013697 13.064668 28.508979 57.407538 106.594894 182.782133 304.471831
2025-04-13 3.906222 11.068263 25.575153 53.831113 103.446700 182.183729 310.472869
2025-04-20 3.469995 10.539235 25.507169 55.612646 109.791195 197.411424 342.387586
2025-04-27 3.244639 10.475311 26.384790 59.273578 119.701260 218.986183 385.374879
2025-05-04 2.872361 9.956196 26.244608 60.975895 126.283747 235.482594 421.074832
2025-05-11 2.504550 9.349830 25.818586 62.051516 131.777442 250.402324 454.818828
2025-05-18 2.112400 8.561012 24.858675 61.937013 135.055417 261.730214 483.175459
2025-05-25 1.717855 7.634394 23.420139 60.658281 136.031281 269.139042 505.359357
2025-06-01 1.441515 6.984184 22.526803 60.408532 138.884042 279.832590 533.285910
2025-06-08 1.080971 5.894522 20.321048 57.020708 135.362225 279.145754 542.060926
2025-06-15 0.968350 5.676644 20.361202 58.670231 141.884585 296.524632 582.011470
2025-06-22 0.786401 5.101681 19.316916 57.685937 142.994903 304.167545 605.496397
2025-06-29 0.739133 5.087537 19.868228 60.539219 152.153967 326.837685 655.718340